Heuristic strategies

The difference between an algorithmic strategy (a structured, forward looking plan) and an heuristic strategy can be visualised by thinking of moving between two cities in two vastly different countries. For example, if it was intended to travel directly between San Francisco and New York without going by air, the route could be planned from start to finish simply by consulting a road map. This would then be an algorithmic plan because each step of the way could be described and written down as a list of instructions.

Now imagine making a surface journey in South America, having to travel from Bogata in Columbia to Salvador in Brazil by way of the uncharted tropical rain forests. Such a journey couldn't be planned. Once in the rain forest, it would be impossible to know the most appropriate paths to take until you are actually there. The terrain may force you to take all kinds of different unpredictable directions as you make your way through. However, it would be possible to navigate the journey by using a few simple rules relating to the position of the sun or stars and the setting of a compass.

The journey through the rain forest would consist of many short journeys, punctuated by stops to assess the approximate position reached. At each of these stops, the next directional heading would be ascertained by using the rules involving the compass setting and the positions of the celestial bodies. Such a strategy could be described as: short steps to explore the way forward, then after each step the application of heuristic rules to ensure that overall progress is relentlessly heading towards the destination - much like a guided missile, constantly monitoring the position of a moving target and adjusting its flight path accordingly. This is an heuristic strategy, with the rules being known as heuristic rules.

This is similar to the strategy of evolution, which moves forward in short stages (generations) then, at the end of each stage, makes corrections by selectively rearranging the genes for the next stage. This strategy allows a directional progress, even though unpredictable events and circumstances might arise. Any business or personal strategy for advancement can also be arranged to proceed in a similar way.

Being in the fast changing, unpredictable environment of the expanding world of telecommunications and computer technology is very much like being in an uncharted rain forest or a newly evolving biological ecosystem. Algorithmic strategies - forward planning - are totally useless. The only possible way to make progress, reach a goal or destination, is to use an heuristic strategy. The trick is to devise the correct heuristic rules - because they will be the sole determinants of what goal or destination is reached.

Heuristic rules are often only vague and approximate. They take the form of generalisations, rules of thumb that do not work every single time but give the best results over a period of time. Success is achieved by being right more times than being wrong, rather than being right every time.

The best examples of heuristic strategies are the tenets or rules of religions. This is a fascinating area of study for Game Theory strategists because the rules have evolved over many thousands of years of civilisation. Throughout the history of mankind, religions have provided the main guiding strategies for human behaviour. These strategies can be thought of as consisting of components where the components are rules, which act in the same way as genes in an organism or memes in a train of thought - they are replaceable and subject to evolutionary pressures. In the case of religious rules, the rules are instructions for suitable behaviour patterns, that act as a strategy for individual and group survival in a highly competitive world.

As we saw in chapter 11, the evolutionary effect of the genetic algorithm enables successful genes and combinations of genes to go through to future generations. This is exactly the same mechanism that acts on the rules of religions. Ever since religions first came into being, new religions and variations of religions have continuously been coming into existence, with the main differences between the religions and their variations being the differences in their rules or tenets.

Like all evolutionary processes, the best survive to multiply and the worst get discarded. In this way, religions that have adopted the best rules have survived and increased their following, while those with inferior rules have passed into oblivion. This has resulted in the most widespread and successful of the religions in the world today having extremely efficient rules.